⚠ī¸ EVENT DAY: Consumer Price Index (CPI, BLS)

Daily Briefing â€ĸ October 14, 2026 11:02 AM EDT

👀 Surface Conditions (Now)
Market Bias: Bearish 📉
30d VIX Regime: COMPLACENCY (IV Rank: 13.0%). Suggests market is underestimating risk.
0DTE VIX1D: 8.19 (Calm 0DTE Tape đŸŸĸ)
Momentum: Short-term fear is FALLING/STABLE (5-day avg: 15.41 vs 200-day avg: 18.11).
⚠ī¸ Under the Hood
Narrative Risk: 4.45/10 (Global Macro Headlines)
30D Term Structure: CONTANGO (NORMAL) (Spot: 15.76 vs Future: 16.95).
0DTE VIX1D Vol Ratio: 0.52 (CONTANGO)
Tail Risk (VVIX): 89.62 (CALM)
👨‍đŸ’ģ Analyst's Take: "Intraday market bias for Wednesday, October 14, 2026, leans Bearish (-1) following the 8:30 AM ET release of the September CPI report, which showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.7% YoY against a 3.6% consensus, largely propelled by a 9.1% monthly spike in gasoline prices. Major equity indices opened lower as Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. Intraday volatility risk for the next 7 hours is moderate (5/10). The primary macro data catalyst has passed, leaving the 2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve Beige Book and Treasury bill auctions as the key remaining intraday catalysts. Although the VIX term structure remains in contango (VX front month at 16.89 vs spot VIX ~15.77), elevated SKEW (154) and a sharp expansion in intraday put/call volume (>2.0) indicate active tail-risk hedging."
Jump to Today's Analysis ↓

🧠 Narrative Breakdown

Overnight News Risk: 4

European markets traded modestly mixed prior to U.S. cash open (DAX +0.33%, CAC +0.60%, FTSE 100 -0.02%). Crude oil prices remained elevated with Brent trading near $106.06/bbl and WTI at $95.65/bbl due to geopolitical supply stress. U.S. equity index futures dropped following the 8:30 AM ET CPI inflation release, leading to a weaker Wall Street cash open.

Economic Data Risk: 5

September CPI headline printed at 3.7% YoY (vs 3.6% consensus, prior 3.4%) and 0.6% MoM (in line with expectations, prior 0.4%). Gasoline jumped 9.1% MoM, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase; Core CPI held at 2.4% YoY. Key remaining scheduled release is the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET, alongside Treasury bill auctions in the afternoon.

Systemic Risk Risk: 3

Persistent $1.9T fiscal deficits and bear-steepening of the yield curve remain ongoing structural themes. U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 are prompting early hedging in volatility curves. No active government shutdown or sovereign debt default is taking place today.

Fed Sentiment Risk: 5

Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman spoke early Wednesday morning in Asia on technology and regulatory modernization. Higher-than-expected CPI inflation reinforces a restrictive policy tone ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a speech from Thomas Barkin at 5:00 PM ET.

Market Internals Risk: 5

Fear & Greed Index remains in 'Greed' territory at 69, down slightly from earlier October levels. SPX daily put/call ratio expanded above 2.03 on October 14 expiry options as market participants hedged post-CPI downside. SPX open interest put/call ratio sits at 1.38, indicating defensive structural positioning.

Social Chatter Risk: 3

Retail forums (r/WallStreetBets and X) focused primarily on the 3.7% CPI print, energy price jumps, and yields. Trending corporate tickers include PLTR, ASTS, RDDT, NVDA, and AMZN. Sentiment reflects a split between dip-buying enthusiasm and concern over interest rate persistence.

Sentiment Divergence Risk: 5

Spot VIX trades near 15.30-15.77 while front VIX futures (VX/V6) trade near 16.89, maintaining contango. VIX/VIX3M ratio (IVTS) stands near 0.848, indicating absence of front-month volatility inversion. High CBOE SKEW (~154) indicates persistent out-of-the-money put buying relative to call options.

Geopolitical Shocks Risk: 4

Russia launched extensive overnight missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv. European leaders convened in London to discuss defensive aid and sanctions enforcement. Middle East tensions keep Brent crude above $105/bbl, contributing directly to the September CPI energy inflation component.

đŸŽ¯ Today's Analysis

SPY

Global Tech Risk 4.83/10

Price: $772.10 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: MODERATE RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$774.03 (-0.25% dist)
Total Net GEX
-$2.83B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$778
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$1.88 (770.22 - 773.98)
Institutional Put Wall
$772 (265K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$776 (203K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.27/pt)
  • Buy 760 Put
  • Sell 768 Put
  • Sell 776 Call
  • Buy 784 Call
Max Risk: $773 C/R Ratio: 3.40% PoP: 86.0% B/E: 767.73 - 776.27
EM Cushion: 2.13x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit/Risk ratio outside standard range; Credit below minimum
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (34/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.05/pt)
  • Sell 777 Call
  • Buy 779 Call
Max Risk: $195 C/R Ratio: 2.50% PoP: 96.3% B/E: N/A - 777.05
EM Cushion: 2.61x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (2.5%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.05) below min ($0.20).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (34/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.06/pt)
  • Buy 765 Put
  • Sell 767 Put
Max Risk: $194 C/R Ratio: 3.00% PoP: 94.5% B/E: 766.94 - N/A
EM Cushion: 2.71x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (3.0%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.06) below min ($0.20).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (34/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.

SPX

Global Tech Risk 4.83/10

Price: $7,746.69 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: MODERATE RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$7763.01 (-0.21% dist)
Total Net GEX
-$19.07B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$7,745
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$17.18 (7729.51 - 7763.87)
Institutional Put Wall
$7,750 (57K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$7,800 (43K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($2.17/pt)
  • Buy 7680 Put
  • Sell 7710 Put
  • Sell 7785 Call
  • Buy 7815 Call
Max Risk: $2783 C/R Ratio: 7.20% PoP: 85.2% B/E: 7707.83 - 7787.17
EM Cushion: 2.19x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit/Risk ratio outside standard range
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (29/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.60/pt)
  • Sell 7790 Call
  • Buy 7810 Call
Max Risk: $1940 C/R Ratio: 3.00% PoP: 95.2% B/E: N/A - 7790.60
EM Cushion: 2.52x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (3.0%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.60) below min ($0.80).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (29/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.55/pt)
  • Buy 7680 Put
  • Sell 7700 Put
Max Risk: $1945 C/R Ratio: 2.80% PoP: 94.3% B/E: 7699.45 - N/A
EM Cushion: 2.72x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (2.8%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.55) below min ($0.80).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (29/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.

XSP

Global Tech Risk 4.83/10

Price: $774.67 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: MODERATE RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$776.30 (-0.21% dist)
Total Net GEX
$0.30B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$776
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$1.58 (773.09 - 776.25)
Institutional Put Wall
$775 (5K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$779 (6K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.25/pt)
  • Buy 768 Put
  • Sell 771 Put
  • Sell 778 Call
  • Buy 781 Call
Max Risk: $275 C/R Ratio: 8.30% PoP: 82.5% B/E: 770.75 - 778.25
EM Cushion: 2.21x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit below minimum
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (27/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.05/pt)
  • Sell 779 Call
  • Buy 781 Call
Max Risk: $195 C/R Ratio: 2.50% PoP: 94.7% B/E: N/A - 779.05
EM Cushion: 2.74x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (2.5%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.05) below min ($0.20).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (27/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.06/pt)
  • Buy 768 Put
  • Sell 770 Put
Max Risk: $194 C/R Ratio: 3.00% PoP: 94.4% B/E: 769.94 - N/A
EM Cushion: 2.96x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 31.5%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (3.0%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.06) below min ($0.20).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • ℹī¸ Transitory Chop: Trend Score (27/100) within 25–50.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.

QQQ

Global Tech Risk 4.83/10

Price: $735.42 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: LOW RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$737.63 (-0.30% dist)
Total Net GEX
-$1.61B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$741
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$2.51 (732.91 - 737.93)
Institutional Put Wall
$735 (153K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$740 (169K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.47/pt)
  • Buy 715 Put
  • Sell 730 Put
  • Sell 742 Call
  • Buy 757 Call
Max Risk: $1453 C/R Ratio: 3.10% PoP: 85.2% B/E: 729.53 - 742.47
EM Cushion: 2.39x EM Symbol IV: highIV (Rank: 43.1%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit/Risk ratio outside standard range; Credit below minimum
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.05/pt)
  • Sell 743 Call
  • Buy 745 Call
Max Risk: $195 C/R Ratio: 2.50% PoP: 96.0% B/E: N/A - 743.05
EM Cushion: 3.02x EM Symbol IV: highIV (Rank: 43.1%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (2.5%) below 12% hurdle. Credit ($0.05) below min ($0.20).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.10/pt)
  • Buy 727 Put
  • Sell 729 Put
Max Risk: $190 C/R Ratio: 5.00% PoP: 91.7% B/E: 728.90 - N/A
EM Cushion: 2.56x EM Symbol IV: highIV (Rank: 43.1%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (5.0%) below 12% hurdle. Credit ($0.10) below min ($0.20).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.

NDX

Global Tech Risk 4.83/10

Price: $30,231.65 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: LOW RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$30299.59 (-0.22% dist)
Total Net GEX
-$1.21B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$30,225
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$109.23 (30122.42 - 30340.88)
Institutional Put Wall
$30,000 (1K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$30,650 (1K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($7.80/pt)
  • Buy 29910 Put
  • Sell 29990 Put
  • Sell 30460 Call
  • Buy 30540 Call
Max Risk: $7220 C/R Ratio: 9.80% PoP: 84.1% B/E: 29982.20 - 30467.80
EM Cushion: 2.15x EM Symbol IV: highIV (Rank: 37.1%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit/Risk ratio outside standard range
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.85/pt)
  • Sell 30490 Call
  • Buy 30510 Call
Max Risk: $1915 C/R Ratio: 4.20% PoP: 93.7% B/E: N/A - 30490.85
EM Cushion: 2.37x EM Symbol IV: highIV (Rank: 37.1%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (4.2%) below 12% hurdle. Credit ($0.85) below min ($1.00).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.95/pt)
  • Buy 29920 Put
  • Sell 29940 Put
Max Risk: $1905 C/R Ratio: 4.80% PoP: 94.2% B/E: 29939.05 - N/A
EM Cushion: 2.67x EM Symbol IV: highIV (Rank: 37.1%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (4.8%) below 12% hurdle. Credit ($0.95) below min ($1.00).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.

IWM

Domestic Credit Risk 3.31/10

Price: $272.86 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: LOW RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$273.58 (-0.26% dist)
Total Net GEX
-$0.16B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$276
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$0.82 (272.04 - 273.68)
Institutional Put Wall
$272 (47K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$274 (42K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.25/pt)
  • Buy 268 Put
  • Sell 271 Put
  • Sell 274 Call
  • Buy 277 Call
Max Risk: $275 C/R Ratio: 8.30% PoP: 76.4% B/E: 270.75 - 274.25
EM Cushion: 1.83x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 24.9%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit below minimum
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.05/pt)
  • Sell 275 Call
  • Buy 277 Call
Max Risk: $195 C/R Ratio: 2.50% PoP: 92.3% B/E: N/A - 275.05
EM Cushion: 2.61x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 24.9%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (2.5%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.05) below min ($0.25).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.02/pt)
  • Buy 268 Put
  • Sell 270 Put
Max Risk: $198 C/R Ratio: 1.00% PoP: 96.7% B/E: 269.98 - N/A
EM Cushion: 3.49x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 24.9%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Narrative bias is Bearish (-1). Strategy requires Neutral or Bullish. Credit/Risk ratio (1.0%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.02) below min ($0.25).
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.

RUT

Domestic Credit Risk 3.31/10

Price: $2,744.81 | Status: ⚠ī¸ HIGH VOLATILITY / DIRECTIONAL (Short Gamma Expansion) | Trend: LOW RISK | Time: 2026-10-14 11:02 AM EDT

📊 Market Microstructure (Shared Session Tape)
Session VWAP
$2751.27 (-0.23% dist)
Total Net GEX
-$0.46B (🔴 SHORT GAMMA)
Gamma Flip Strike
$2,785
0DTE Expected Move
Âą$9.23 (2735.58 - 2754.04)
Institutional Put Wall
$2,720 (1K vol) 🛡ī¸
Institutional Call Wall
$2,780 (1K vol) 🛡ī¸
IRON CONDOR IV Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($1.77/pt)
  • Buy 2695 Put
  • Sell 2725 Put
  • Sell 2760 Call
  • Buy 2790 Call
Max Risk: $2823 C/R Ratio: 5.90% PoP: 82.9% B/E: 2723.23 - 2761.77
EM Cushion: 1.90x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 20.0%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Regime Veto: Iron Condors strictly prohibited in Short Gamma (directional acceleration risk); Credit/Risk ratio outside standard range
  • Elevated Implied Move: 1.28% (common)
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BEAR CALL SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.68/pt)
  • Sell 2765 Call
  • Buy 2785 Call
Max Risk: $1932 C/R Ratio: 3.40% PoP: 93.1% B/E: N/A - 2765.68
EM Cushion: 2.19x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 20.0%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bear Call Rejection: Credit/Risk ratio (3.4%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.68) below min ($0.80).
  • Elevated Implied Move: 1.28% (common)
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.
BULL PUT SPREAD Model CRITERIA NOT MET ($0.25/pt)
  • Buy 2700 Put
  • Sell 2720 Put
Max Risk: $1975 C/R Ratio: 1.30% PoP: 95.2% B/E: 2719.75 - N/A
EM Cushion: 2.69x EM Symbol IV: midIV (Rank: 20.0%)
⚠ī¸ Notes & Warnings:
  • Bull Put Rejection: Narrative bias is Bearish (-1). Strategy requires Neutral or Bullish. Credit/Risk ratio (1.3%) below 8% hurdle. Credit ($0.25) below min ($0.80).
  • Elevated Implied Move: 1.28% (common)
  • RANGE COMPRESSION: Neutral auction posture (Bias: 0) favors range-bound containment.
  • Post-Catalyst Distribution Risk: +15 pts for IRON_CONDOR_IV on Event day.